Kolmogorov Complexity Analysis and Prediction Horizon of the Daily Erythemal Dose Time Series

Influenced by stratospheric total ozone column (TOC), cloud cover, aerosols, albedo, and other factors, levels of daily erythemal dose (Her) in a specific geographic region show significant variability time space. To investigate the degree randomness predictability Her series from ground-based observations Novi Sad, Serbia, during 2003–2012 period, we used set information measures: Kolmogorov complexity, complexity spectrum, running largest Lyapunov exponent, time, time. The result reveals that fluctuations are moderately random exhibit low chaotic behavior. We found larger number occurrences deviation mean years with lower values (2007–2009, 2011–2012), which explains higher complexity. Our analysis indicated tendency to increase when cover TOC increases, affects short-term predictability. prediction horizon Sad given corrected for is between 1.5 3.5 days.